Since turning down a maximum contract offer from the Indiana Pacers and requesting a trade at the start of the season, Victor Oladipo and the Miami HEAT have been tied together. Various rumors swirled regarding mutual interest in bringing the slashing defensive guard to South Beach. After being moved to the Houston Rockets in the James Harden trade, Oladipo was moved for a second time in one season to the team he’s been looking to join, the Miami HEAT. The pairing both sides had been looking for finally became a reality, but not for long. Victor Oladipo sustained an injury that has sidelined him since his fourth game in Miami. There were hopes he would return for the NBA Playoffs, but that hope has now faded as Oladipo has elected to have season-ending surgery on his right quadriceps tendon which will lead to Oladipo’s unrestricted Free Agent Summer with no timetable for a return.
What’s next for Oladipo
With no timetable for a return prior to the surgery, it will be hard to predict how Oladipo will raise his stock prior to the 2021-22 season. The 28-year-old guard out of Indiana has been fighting injury since the 2018-19 season. Oladipo missed the back half of the 2018-19 season and majority of the 2019-20 season after injuring the same quadriceps tendon he is currently having surgery on. Despite the injury, the Pacers offered him a maximum contract offer prior to his trade to the Rockets but Oladipo turned it down. He decided to bet on himself, having one of the most productive careers of his year despite playing for 3 franchises. Oladipo is now out with the reoccurring injury and left with no guaranteed money, what will the market look like for the player who took a chance?
It is hard to believe the market will be anywhere near what it was looking like prior to this injury. Oladipo was primed to receive another max offer with the team of his choosing. With no ties to an organization following this season, and playing at the level he was pre-injury in 2018, Oladipo was looking at the money. This is no longer the case as Oladipo is looking at a “prove it” offer for one year with a significantly less salary. The only way I see Oladipo returning to the Miami HEAT is on a minimum deal of 1 year, possibly 1 year and a player option for a second year. With Miami set to have Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson hit free agency this summer, and also looking at adding All-Star level talent such as Kyle Lowry, it is not likely Pat Riley is going to dish out much cash for a player who can’t stay on the court, no matter how bad the two parties wanted to join forces. For Oladipo, Miami might be his best spot to reframe his value as they have one of the best training programs in the NBA. Unless a multiyear high-level offer comes for Oladipo, I would imagine he would be willing to sign a prove it deal in Miami to get his career back on course.
What’s Next for the HEAT?
Miami has a decision to make, but they are sitting in a good place despite the situation. The HEAT gave up virtually nothing to acquire Victor Oladipo at the trade deadline, they did not have to give up a young prospect or a key piece down the road. This allowed Miami a no-risk trial run with a player they have wanted for years and ability to see if he fit on the court the way they envisioned while maintaining no consequences if the experiment did not work out. With Oladipo out of sight and out of mind after four games and the HEAT looking to make a playoff run, Miami will have a decision to make moving down the line. As I stated previously, I don’t see anything more than a minimum offer on the table from the HEAT. Miami did not have Oladipo long enough to make a clear determination on his long term fit with the franchise, and a team looking to capitalize on the remainder of superstar Jimmy Butler’s contract and budding star Bam Adebayo, they are not in position to try out experiments while looking to compete for championships. Oladipo’s interest may be higher than Miami’s to keep the partnership going.
Miami has many decisions to make this summer. Young impact Guards Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson are both slated to hit the market this summer, as well as new additions Forward Trevor Ariza and Center Dewayne Dedmon. Duncan Robinson has emerged as an elite spot up 3-point shooter in the last two seasons with Miami. Robinson has also taken steps forward in his defense and scoring from inside the arc. This is going to be a very big decision for Miami as he is expected to see offers anywhere from the $15 million-$25 million mark. As a player who has only played 2 full seasons in the NBA and becoming such a valuable offensive weapon, it will be interesting how far Miami will go to retain Robinson or how they’d go about replacing him. Kendrick Nunn will also be a huge decision. Kendrick Nunn has seen himself as a starter, role player, and out of the rotation in his two seasons in Miami. Similar to Victor Oladipo, Nunn is a two-way player who is quick, can facilitate, and score. Nunn does not hold as much value defensively as Oladipo, but Nunn has steadily improved on that side of the ball this season. Majority of the time Nunn has had opportunities for Miami he has produced. In a recent game in April, Nunn nearly went for a triple double in 38 minutes of play finishing with 30 points, 8 assists, and 7 rebounds. Nunn has also had multiple 20-point 5-assist 5-rebound games this season. Nunn will be the more expensive option than Oladipo as a younger and healthier two-way guard and will receive plenty of interest in free agency.
Adding outside talent is also on the table for Miami this summer. With Goran Dragic and Andre Iguodala on team options, the HEAT has the ability to add pieces. Kyle Lowry was a name on Miami’s radar prior to the acquisition of Victor Oladipo. In a recent interview, Jimmy Butler revealed that him and Lowry are actually very close friends and that Lowry is the godfather of Butler’s daughter. Lowry is past his prime years, but is still a top point guard in the NBA and could be a solid addition to a roster in its championship window. There is also the very outside chance of other talent being brought in such as Chris Paul or Kawhi Leonard who are set to hit free agency this summer as well. Miami is set to have a busy offseason whether it is internally or externally.
Verdict
It is going to be a busy summer of choices for both sides. The biggest factor for Oladipo will be how quickly he can get a timetable for his return and when he can get on the court and prove where he’s at physically. The market will be the deciding factor on where Oladipo goes, Miami is not going to extend itself to keep Oladipo, and may not look to bring him back regardless due to other options they have. This pairing was a disappointment for both sides as Oladipo wanted to prove himself and physically could not and Miami lost a piece that would be very helpful in a long playoff stretch. This will be interesting to see what gets reported throughout the summer on this topic and what details come to light as far as interest from both parties.
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